Electrical

Blackouts or Conserved Power To The People? Part I - 2000-12-21

Dismantle deregulation? Corral the wholesalers? Beg for a federal bail out? Remove price freezes? Gouge consumers?

As if California's housing crisis wasn't enough, the nation's bastion of the New Economy now faces an energy crisis that threatens both its economy and its inextricably intertwined real estate market.

If the high tech industry can't get the juice it needs from California to fuel continued creation of all those new technological widgets and whiz bang information services, other states will be more than willing to provide well-lighted facilities.

And where goes the high tech industry so goes its jobs and the insatiable demand for housing that's been pumping up real estate values for most of the decade.

Right now, conservation is the first line of defense and, perhaps, the only short term solution.

If lost home value doesn't put the fear of not conserving into your household, utility companies could very well turn out the lights for you.

On numerous occasions in recent weeks, California has been one alert level away from rolling blackouts -- a sort of forced conservation designed to prevent the state from slipping into total darkness.

A combination of greater power use, expensive spot market energy purchases, power plant maintenance outages, aging power grids and other troubles have been been blamed for the Golden State's latest crisis.

And while California has been hit hardest, it isn't suffering alone.

The crisis is spreading.

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2482 - Interest Rate Activity During The Past Week   Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri 30-Year Fixed 6.46 6.40 6.41 6.41 6.41 15-Year Fixed 6.06 6.01 6.00 5.99 6.01 1-Year ARM 5.44 5.45 5.45 5.46 5.45 Jumbo 6.82 6.76 6.75 6.76 6.76 Data Source: Bank Rate Monitor Commentary The past week surely represents the most difficult time for the United States since December 7, 1941, the day Pearl Harbor was bombed. Terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, the possibility of additional bombings, and the grim news of so many deaths and so much destruction has riveted the country. The closing of the stock markets in New York and the halt to commercial air traffic nationwide comes on top of what has been a slowing economy worldwide. But despite the awful events of the past few days, the economy remains fundamentally strong. Better than 95 percent of us are employed, daily commerce continues, and in time the country will return to a new economic normalcy, one made different by the attacks in New York and Washington. The stock markets are scheduled to re-open today while the commodity markets opened last week, as did the bond markets. Bond prices rose late last week, meaning that fixed-interest rates declined during the period. Read this Nemmar Real Estate Training article at Mortgage Loans, Finance, Economy, Appraisal

 

Even with oil prices staging a retreat this winter, natural gas prices are up 100 percent or more in many locations this year as the Midwest suffers through one snow storm after another. The Northeast is also digging out, while in the Pacific Northwest, limited rainfall left little water to fuel hydroelectric systems.

Earlier this week western state governors, electric utility officials and federal regulators, including Energy Secretary Bill Richardson met in Denver to grabble with all the energy woes.

Deregulation dilemma

Consumer advocates are pointing the big finger at deregulation, a consumer-friendly approach to doing business that has worked for some industries, but not for the nation's electric power monopolies.

Three years of price spikes and brown outs across the country indicate that supply and demand conditions in electricity markets will not allow major segments of the industry to function effectively on a competitive basis, destroying their ability to deliver the promised consumer benefits of electricity restructuring, according to "Reconsidering Electricity Restructuring: Do Market Problems Indicate A Short Circuit Or A Total Blackout?" recently released by the Consumer Federation of America (CFA) and Consumers Union (CU).

"We do not have to deregulate every segment of every market," Gene Kimmelman, Washington co-director of Consumers Union said.

"Deregulation is a means to an end - lower prices, higher quality, and more real choices for consumers. If the conditions are not right for a vital commodity like electricity, consumers will be hurt by deregulation," he added.

Simply put, the nation's power supply system more and more often can't meet the demands of the nation in the throes of the largest economic expansion on record.

According to the report, aside from sheer demand, deregulation places an additional burden on power systems in a number of ways, including:

  • Short-term supply responses are constrained because the outdated power infrastructure makes it difficult to store electricity.
  • The coordination of an integrated, real-time network has broken down because competition reduces the incentive for market participants to cooperate and that makes it difficult for system operators to manage the electricity grid.
  • Provisions for reserve margins is uncertain in a competitive market, because no one has an interest in building excess capacity.
  • Utilities cut back on power generation and transmission investments because of an uncertain regulatory environment, while refusing to open networks to competitors, further inhibiting competitive capacity construction.
  • Inadequate transmission capacity and self-interested manipulation of access to the transmission system limits the power flow.
  • Non-competitive bidding reveals an insufficient number of electricity producers to prevent gaming and that drives prices sky high.

    "By traditional performance indicators like price and quality, a massive market failure is occurring," Kimmelman added, "and states like California, Nevada, and Oklahoma are having the debate that should have taken place in the 1990s -- not a debate about when, or how to deregulate electricity markets, but whether parts of the market should be deregulated at all," said Kimmelman.

    Tomorrow: Blackouts or Conserved Power To The People? Part II: Bah Hum Bug now or Bah Hum Bug later, but turn out those Christmas lights more often.

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