Home Price Increases Slow to More Sustainable Rate in First Quarter - 6/21/2004 - Mortgage Loan Refinance Debt Equity

Home Price Increases Slow to More Sustainable Rate in First Quarter

Home price appreciation for the first three months of 2004 was 0.96%, or an annualized rate of 3.84%, according to the index. This was the first quarterly appreciation rate below 1% since the second quarter of 1998.

Average U.S. home prices were up 7.71% in the first quarter of this year over the same period of 2003. By comparison, the price of non-housing goods and services tracked in the Consumer Price Index increased 1.59% during that time.

“This moderation in the growth of house prices is welcome because continued price jumps like those of the fourth quarter last year would raise the potential for declines later on,” said Patrick Lawler, chief economist at OFHEO.

The biggest quarter-to-quarter price increases occurred in Hawaii (15.16%), Nevada (15.08%), Rhode Island (14.8%), the District of Columbia (14.33%) and California (13.94%). Housing price increases also exceeded the national average in 13 other states.

The smallest increases were in Utah (1.95%), Texas (2.34%), Indiana (2.8%), Colorado (2.85%) and Alabama (3.18%).

During this year’s first quarter, six states experienced negative price growth — Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska.

Regionally, prices moved up most aggressively in the Pacific states of California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska, where the average gain was 12.21% for the 12-month period.

The West South Central states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma experienced the slowest price increases, which averaged 3.22%.

Prices declined in 39 of 220 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the first quarter, compared to three in last year’s fourth quarter and four in the second quarter.

Fresno was the metro area with the fastest 12-month home price gains; they were up 21.38%. Rounding out the top five metro areas for price gains were Riverside-San Bernardino, CA; Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL; Ventura, CA; and Los Angeles-Long Beach.

In eighth place, fast-growing Las Vegas, whose housing stock has been relatively affordable, saw price appreciation averaging 16.37%.

“Last year’s rise in borrowing rates may have stimulated fears of further rate increases, causing some prospective purchasers to move more quickly to buy than they might have otherwise last fall,” said Lawler.

“That sense of urgency apparently diminished last quarter after rates stabilized,” he said. “It will be interesting to see what the effects of more recent interest rate increases are in the future.”