Remodeling Numbers Greater Than Census Shows, Says Industry by Lew Sichelman
Remodeling outlays totaled $142.9 billion last year, according to revised Census Bureau figures. And in the fourth quarter, expenditures to maintain, repair and improve houses reached a record seasonally adjusted rate of $165.2 billion. The revised annual figure confirm what many remodelers have been saying for some time; that their market is far larger than the government's official numbers indicate. Indeed, the National Association of Home Builders and Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies have been meeting with Census Bureau staff for the last several years to address their concerns over the timeliness and quality of data collected through the C-50 survey. As a result, the agency has introduced new weighting and tabulation procedures for information collected back to 1984. "This is good news, but I think the Census Bureau is telling us something that most remodelers around the country already knew," said NAHB President Robert Mitchell, a builder and remodeler in the Washington area, noting that for the last several years, contractors have barely been able to keep up with their work. The revised total for 1999 is 20 percent greater than the NAHB's estimates using the original Census data ($120 billion) and 7 percent greater than the adjusted 1998 figure ($133.7 billion). Also, the fourth quarter record was 12 percent higher than the third quarter rate ($147.3 billion). The previous peak ($151.7 billion) occurred in the second quarter of 1998, according to the amended figures. Improvements, which include additions and alterations, accounted for 70 percent of total expenditures ($120.8 billion). The rest ($44.4 billion) went for maintenance and repairs. The Census Bureau's C-50 survey of remodeling expenditures is one of only two government reviews that track improvements to existing housing stock. It is smaller than the Department of Housing and Urban Development's American Housing Survey and does not offer the detail contained in HUD's overview, but it important because it is the sole source of data on improvements and repairs to rental, vacant and seasonal properties. These units comprise about a third of the nation's housing stock and account for 30 percent of the dollars spent on remodeling. Despite the bureau's modifications, disagreement about the size of the market is not likely to ebb. Even with the adjusted figures, HUD's bi-annual survey shows that property owners spend more on remodeling than does Census. The latest HUD figures put total remodeling expenditures at $242 billion in 1996 and 1997. For those same two years, even the revamped Census Bureau count adds up to just $182.5 billion a difference of nearly $60 billion. "One thing we know for sure, the market isn't shrinking," said Robbinsville, N.J., contractor Jan Williams, who chairs NAHB's Remodelers Council. "And it will continue to grow at a healthy clip as long as the houses we live in keep getting older and as long as people's lifestyles and tastes keep changing." | 
