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No Unsustainable Speculative Bubble in U.S. Housing Market, UCLA - 6/7/2004 - Mortgage Loan Refinance Debt Equity

No Unsustainable Speculative Bubble in U.S. Housing Market, According to UCLA Physicists

Physicists at the University of California, Los Angeles last summer released findings that the Federal Reserve’s “aggressively reduced short-term rates yields” and the lowest mortgage interest rates in decades had not created a bubble in home prices in the U.S.

 

“Testifying before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs in July 2002, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan told lawmakers that rising home prices in the USA are a by-product of ‘low mortgage rates, immigration and shortages of buildable land in some areas,’” according to the authors of the report — Wei-Xing Zhou and Didier Sornette.

“As a result, home owners have more equity they can use to pay off high-cost consumer debt and for other purposes. This leads to a beneficial effect on the U.S. economy rather than suggesting the possibility of a real estate crash,” they wrote.

“Based on the science of complexity, our analysis provides a confirmation of this conclusion derived from more standard economic analysis.”

 
 

The analysis from the UCLA scientists reaches more troubling conclusions about the situation in Great Britain, where they believe housing prices could be poised for a crash.

The authors also site the segmentation of the U.S. housing market, which housing economists continue to argue is a factor that makes a national decline in the nation’s housing prices highly improbable.

The physicists based their analysis on the science of complexity, which, they say, “explains the spontaneous occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior, such as well-functioning capitalistic markets but also financial crashes and depressions, from the repeated nonlinear interactions between the constituents of economies.”

The analysis at UCLA represents a relatively new approach to studying the economy called “econonophysics.”

“Over the past decade, statistical physicists have begun to suggest that economists might want to rethink some of the basic assumptions upon which they construct their models,” writes Philip Ball in “Critical Mass — How One Thing Leads to Another.”

“By importing ideas from physics, say the physicists, economists can start to make sense of the erratic and so far unpredictable behavior of the world’s markets,” Ball writes.


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